论文部分内容阅读
At the turn of the century the Western world was looking into a bright decade. Inflation was low， growth steady， financial service industries booming and the young European Union sure to be at the brink soon to measure up to its competitor， the United States of America. The economist Robert Lucas， a Nobel Prize winner， in 2003 predicted that “the central problem of depression-prevention has been solved…and has in fact been solved for many decades.”
The financial crisis in 2008 took many by surprise. Neither the U.S. nor the EU has recovered. More so， the EU slid into an existential crisis， its survival as a currency union still very much in question.
It was not the predicted spectacle of Europe becoming “the most dynamic， knowledge-driven economy，” in the world， as announced grandly in 2000， but the beginning of a contraction of GDPs and hope. With economic growth at a standstill and recession since 2012， Europe’s “austerity” solution （big reductions in debt-financed government spending） seems to have failed.
National debts are rising ever higher. Europe soon will have almost 10 percent of the world’s population， but 50 percent of global social costs. Spending in Europe is disproportionate and cannot be financed in the future. The mentality that it pays to not work is not sustainable， neither economically nor socially. There is a huge lack of reforms in administration. Austerity measures are misplaced， and basic reforms needed to stimulate the private economy are virtually ignored.
Austerity is not working and European citizens are getting increasingly restless. Most worrying of all， there is no sign of a private sector recovery. The Eurozone faces up to 27 percent unemployment in Spain， Greece and Portugal – with more than 50 percent unemployment rate among young people， a “lost generation” with no hope in sight， an old generation feeling betrayed of an evening of life in dignity and people in mid-age dropping out of the labor force to never return.
Angry anti-austerity groups have gathered in a summit in Athens from all parts of Europe. They see Europe “on the edge of a cliff， facing the abyss” and are calling for radical change in Europe’s austerity politics.
Finally as the economic gap between north and southern Europe Union members keeps widening and social unrest increasing， there is a shimmer of hope on the horizon that Europe’s austerity bandwagon might prepare for a slow and quiet reverse. It appeared when Brussels announced that member states would be allowed to overshoot the imposed 3 percent budget deficit limit （which only five of 27 countries kept anyway）. In return， Eurozone countries promised to undertake structural reform， to which the Financial Times commented： “And pigs might fly.” America， for centuries the bastion for entrepreneurship and economic advancement， under presidents Bush and Obama has held on to a “stimulus” approach -- high levels of debt financed government spending. Stimulus advocates argue that every dollar spent will add a dollar more to economic output while every dollar held back will mean a dollar of lost production. They argue that with millions being unemployed in the U.S. and Europe， more induced eco-nomic activity is desperately needed.
Back in the 1860’s the construction of America’s transcontinental railroad was an enormous government stimulus package followed by a long tail of private businesses. Stimulus advocates argue that investing in America’s outdated infrastructures and in its primary education system， which in any case is in desperate need for reforms， will pay off and be paid back in tax revenues in the future， which among other things can be used to pay back debt.
Austerity advocates demanded tightening belts to cut debt despite high unemployment and stimulus advocates demanding government spending programs to boost the economy keep defending their arguments. Two opposite approaches to fixing sick economies， each remarkably supported by about 50 percent of economists， including Nobel Prize winners on both sides. So much for economics being a science.
Nevertheless， Europe’s austerity policy and America’s “stimulus” policy have both navigated badly. Dysfunc- tional politics on both sides of the Atlantic has been with us for a long time. Countries incapable of reforms earlier in good times are now finding it much harder to deal with their problems in these bad times.
They have failed to deliver what is the key role of good governing： to create the conditions in which growth can take place. Governments can’t do it for you. But governments must do their best to promote growth. The lack of access to credit is a major barrier in growth. In the case of finance governance， reforms remain national while economics are global.
For more than three years the austerity packages were choking any tiny plant of growth. Only recently， facing increasingly deserted entrepreneurial playfields， in sank in that growth needs nourishment. A malnourish patient cannot recover on a starvation program.
The universal principle that everything is either growing or dying should instruct us. Trees are either growing or dying. So are companies， countries， universities， and human beings. The secret is to really observe what is growing and what is dying， and if dying， what needs to be done to bring back growth again. That applies to us， to you， to your company， to your country.
Every advanced government in the world seems to believe that its responsibility is to engineer economic outcomes top-down. Growth is created bottom up. Only people can rejuvenate a dying company or country. The role of government is to create， or recreate the conditions， the environment in which people are free to create and re-create， innovate， and rejuvenate. In America， in the 1860s teachers， tailors， plumbers， electricians， restaurant owners and hairdresser companies followed the tracks of the transcontinental railroad to build their businesses. The beginnings of Chinas rise were reforms that opened the door to economic opportunities for entrepreneurs. Countless tiny businesses created a new awareness of supply and demand. Small and middle sized companies today are the backbone of a healthy economy， their sustainable growth supported by well placed government initiatives to stimulate growth.
The financial crisis in 2008 took many by surprise. Neither the U.S. nor the EU has recovered. More so， the EU slid into an existential crisis， its survival as a currency union still very much in question.
It was not the predicted spectacle of Europe becoming “the most dynamic， knowledge-driven economy，” in the world， as announced grandly in 2000， but the beginning of a contraction of GDPs and hope. With economic growth at a standstill and recession since 2012， Europe’s “austerity” solution （big reductions in debt-financed government spending） seems to have failed.
National debts are rising ever higher. Europe soon will have almost 10 percent of the world’s population， but 50 percent of global social costs. Spending in Europe is disproportionate and cannot be financed in the future. The mentality that it pays to not work is not sustainable， neither economically nor socially. There is a huge lack of reforms in administration. Austerity measures are misplaced， and basic reforms needed to stimulate the private economy are virtually ignored.
Austerity is not working and European citizens are getting increasingly restless. Most worrying of all， there is no sign of a private sector recovery. The Eurozone faces up to 27 percent unemployment in Spain， Greece and Portugal – with more than 50 percent unemployment rate among young people， a “lost generation” with no hope in sight， an old generation feeling betrayed of an evening of life in dignity and people in mid-age dropping out of the labor force to never return.
Angry anti-austerity groups have gathered in a summit in Athens from all parts of Europe. They see Europe “on the edge of a cliff， facing the abyss” and are calling for radical change in Europe’s austerity politics.
Finally as the economic gap between north and southern Europe Union members keeps widening and social unrest increasing， there is a shimmer of hope on the horizon that Europe’s austerity bandwagon might prepare for a slow and quiet reverse. It appeared when Brussels announced that member states would be allowed to overshoot the imposed 3 percent budget deficit limit （which only five of 27 countries kept anyway）. In return， Eurozone countries promised to undertake structural reform， to which the Financial Times commented： “And pigs might fly.” America， for centuries the bastion for entrepreneurship and economic advancement， under presidents Bush and Obama has held on to a “stimulus” approach -- high levels of debt financed government spending. Stimulus advocates argue that every dollar spent will add a dollar more to economic output while every dollar held back will mean a dollar of lost production. They argue that with millions being unemployed in the U.S. and Europe， more induced eco-nomic activity is desperately needed.
Back in the 1860’s the construction of America’s transcontinental railroad was an enormous government stimulus package followed by a long tail of private businesses. Stimulus advocates argue that investing in America’s outdated infrastructures and in its primary education system， which in any case is in desperate need for reforms， will pay off and be paid back in tax revenues in the future， which among other things can be used to pay back debt.
Austerity advocates demanded tightening belts to cut debt despite high unemployment and stimulus advocates demanding government spending programs to boost the economy keep defending their arguments. Two opposite approaches to fixing sick economies， each remarkably supported by about 50 percent of economists， including Nobel Prize winners on both sides. So much for economics being a science.
Nevertheless， Europe’s austerity policy and America’s “stimulus” policy have both navigated badly. Dysfunc- tional politics on both sides of the Atlantic has been with us for a long time. Countries incapable of reforms earlier in good times are now finding it much harder to deal with their problems in these bad times.
They have failed to deliver what is the key role of good governing： to create the conditions in which growth can take place. Governments can’t do it for you. But governments must do their best to promote growth. The lack of access to credit is a major barrier in growth. In the case of finance governance， reforms remain national while economics are global.
For more than three years the austerity packages were choking any tiny plant of growth. Only recently， facing increasingly deserted entrepreneurial playfields， in sank in that growth needs nourishment. A malnourish patient cannot recover on a starvation program.
The universal principle that everything is either growing or dying should instruct us. Trees are either growing or dying. So are companies， countries， universities， and human beings. The secret is to really observe what is growing and what is dying， and if dying， what needs to be done to bring back growth again. That applies to us， to you， to your company， to your country.
Every advanced government in the world seems to believe that its responsibility is to engineer economic outcomes top-down. Growth is created bottom up. Only people can rejuvenate a dying company or country. The role of government is to create， or recreate the conditions， the environment in which people are free to create and re-create， innovate， and rejuvenate. In America， in the 1860s teachers， tailors， plumbers， electricians， restaurant owners and hairdresser companies followed the tracks of the transcontinental railroad to build their businesses. The beginnings of Chinas rise were reforms that opened the door to economic opportunities for entrepreneurs. Countless tiny businesses created a new awareness of supply and demand. Small and middle sized companies today are the backbone of a healthy economy， their sustainable growth supported by well placed government initiatives to stimulate growth.