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目的探讨灰色系统理论对血吸虫病８项疫情指标的预测可信性。方法用灰色理论对血吸虫病８项疫情指标建立预测模型。用“残差建模”提高原点精度；用“等维递补灰数动态预测”来动态地预测未来结果；引进“环境干涉因子”修正预测结果。结果对血吸虫病各项疫情指标进行了中长期预测。根据研究分析和预测的结果对血吸虫病防治工作提出了概要的对策。结论这一研究为血吸虫病的预测提供了新的重要方法，近期预测结果已得到证实，未来预测将进一步验证。
Objective To investigate the reliability of gray system theory in predicting the 8 epidemic indexes of schistosomiasis. Methods The gray theory was used to establish the prediction model of 8 epidemic indexes of schistosomiasis. “Residual modeling” to improve the accuracy of the origin; using “equal dimension gray dynamic prediction” to dynamically predict future results; the introduction of “environmental interference factor” to amend the prediction results. Results The long-term and long-term prediction of schistosomiasis epidemic indexes were made. According to the results of the research and analysis and prediction, the prevention and treatment of schistosomiasis is outlined. Conclusion This study provides a new and important method for the prediction of schistosomiasis. The results of recent predictions have been confirmed and future predictions will be further validated.