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针对目前相关研究缺乏定量分析的现状,探讨中国科技期刊参考文献数量与总被引频次、影响因子的定量关系。根据《中国科技期刊引证报告》2000—2013年的相关统计数据,拟合出相应的关系曲线及公式,分析篇均引文数与平均总被引频次、篇均引文数与平均影响因子的关系和变化趋势。结果表明:篇均引文数与平均总被引频次呈现较好的线性关系;篇均引文数与平均影响因子呈现比较理想的三次多项式关系;拟合曲线与统计数据吻合良好。根据这2个拟合公式进行预测,当篇均引文数达到20时,中国科技核心期刊的平均总被引频次有望超过1 700,平均影响因子有望超过1.0。根据预测结果,如果篇均引文数能在现有基础上提高26%,则平均总被引频次有可能提高44%,平均影响因子有可能提高90%。
In view of the current lack of quantitative analysis of relevant research, this paper discusses the quantitative relationship between the number of references and the total number of cited citation and influencing factors in Chinese sci-tech periodicals. According to the relevant statistics of China Sci-tech Periodicals Citation Report from 2000 to 2013, the corresponding relation curves and formulas were fitted, and the relationship between the number of citation citation and the average total citation frequency, the number of citation per citation and the average impact factor were analyzed. Trend. The results show that there is a good linear relationship between the number of citation-per-citation and the average total number of cites; the number of citation-per-citation and the average impact factor present an ideal cubic polynomial relationship; the fitted curve is in good agreement with the statistical data. According to these two fitting formulas, when the number of articles per citation reaches 20, the average total citation frequency of China’s science and technology core journals is expected to exceed 1 700, and the average impact factor is expected to exceed 1.0. According to the forecast results, if the number of citations per article is increased by 26% from the current level, the average total number of citations may increase by 44% and the average impact factor may increase by 90%.