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人民币汇率政策作为重要的宏观政策调节手段,对实现经济内外均衡协调发展有重要意义,因而对就业也会产生一定的影响。本文从相关性的角度研究汇率增量和就业增量之间相关性以及汇率和就业量之间关系,并利用1985年-2012年我国就业总量、实际汇率的年度数据进行实证分析。结果表明:汇率增量和就业增量之间存在高度正相关,从而表明就业增量受汇率增量变动显著性影响;而汇率和就业量之间同的阶段呈现出不同的相关性,呈现负相关性的时段,往往是因为人民币汇率的突然升值降低了就业对汇率敏感性,使得汇率和就业之间出现明显“脱钩”现象,从而说明汇率升值不利于就业,贬值有利于就业。
As an important means of macroeconomic policy adjustment, the RMB exchange rate policy is of great significance to the balanced and balanced development of the economy both inside and outside the country, and thus has an impact on employment. This paper studies the correlation between exchange rate increment and employment increment as well as the relationship between exchange rate and employment volume from the perspective of relevance and uses the annual data of China's total employment and real exchange rate from 1985 to 2012 for empirical analysis. The results show that there is a high degree of positive correlation between exchange rate increment and employment increment, which shows that employment increment is significantly affected by incremental changes in exchange rate; while exchange rate and employment volume show different correlations at the same stage, showing negative The correlation period is often because the sudden appreciation of the RMB exchange rate reduces the sensitivity of employment to the exchange rate, resulting in a clear “decoupling” between the exchange rate and employment. This shows that the appreciation of the exchange rate is not conducive to employment and the devaluation is conducive to employment.