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文章从分析国防科研支出促进经济增长的机理入手,修正了新古典经济增长模型,通过深入分解综台要素变化率提取出国防科技对经济增长的贡献值,并根据国防科研投入严出的分布延迟特性建立了国防科研支出对经济增长贡献的测算模型,利用该模型预测出1999年国防科研支出对2009年经济增长的贡献率为9.51%。文章认为,要使国防费结构实现进一步升级,EKC、EJC、EGXC 三项投入的比例拟确定为2:1:1,同时应通过综合平衡各期投入规模来配合宏观经济政策的实现。
Based on the analysis of the mechanism of national defense expenditure for economic growth, the article revised the model of neoclassical economic growth, extracted the contribution value of national defense science and technology to economic growth through in-depth decomposition of the rate of change of comprehensive factor and delayed the distribution according to the strict investment in national defense research Characteristics The model for calculating the contributions of national defense research expenditures to economic growth was established. Using this model, the contribution of national defense scientific research expenditures to economic growth in 2009 was estimated to be 9.51%. The article holds that the proportion of EKC, EJC and EGXC should be 2: 1: 1 to achieve the further escalation of the structure of defense costs. At the same time, we should coordinate macroeconomic policies by comprehensively balancing the investment in each phase.