论文部分内容阅读
针对复杂环境下决策者对于应急事件作出的决策往往会面对偏好转移的问题,提出一种新的大群体风险型动态应急决策方法.首先利用偏好判断矩阵对全体决策者偏好进行聚类分析和偏好集结;其次,利用累积前景理论计算决策大群体的总体前景值;再次,考虑未来状态转移链,经过多轮调整得出决策者偏好转移矩阵,结合偏好转移矩阵和大群体总体前景值可得到当前突发事件状态下的最优方案;最后,通过案例分析与对比表明所提出方法的有效性和可行性.
In order to solve the problem of preference transfer in decision-making of emergency decision-makers in complex environment, this paper proposes a new method of large-group risk-based dynamic emergency decision-making.Firstly, using preference judgment matrix to cluster the preferences of all decision makers Secondly, using the cumulative foreground theory to calculate the overall foreground value of decision-making large group; Thirdly, considering the state transition chain in the future, the decision maker preference transfer matrix is obtained through multiple rounds of adjustment, and the preference transfer matrix and the overall population foreground value can be obtained At present, the best solution under current emergency condition is given. Finally, the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method are demonstrated through case analysis and comparison.