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回顾性地分析了1996年12月16日顺义Ms4．0地震前，首都圈的异常演变情况及利用加卸载响应比等方法对该地震震前形势及震后趋势进行的综合判断。结果表明，顺义地震前测展学及非测震学均存在地震前兆，这些前兆具有一定程度的中期向短期演化的特点。利用响应比除可以对主展作出一定程度的预测外，还能对较大余震作出不同程度的预测。作者还探讨了地震日常监测中须要汲取的经验教训。
We retrospectively analyzed the anomalous evolutions of the metropolitan area before the Shunyi Ms 4.0 earthquake on December 16, 1996 and the comprehensive judgment of the situation before and after the earthquake using the method of loading and unloading response ratio. The results show that there are earthquake precursors in both surveying and non-seismology before the Shunyi earthquake, and these precursors have a certain degree of medium-term to short-term evolution. In addition to using the response ratio can make a certain degree of prediction of the main exhibition, but also to make a larger degree of aftershock prediction. The author also explored the lessons to be learned from the daily monitoring of earthquakes.