论文部分内容阅读
地震前兆综合危险度是以系统论为基础的一种综合地震预报的新方法。利用山东省每年年底的地震会商报告给出的地震前兆异常，而不是取震后的震例总结或论文给出的异常，通过“专家系统”的思想，对每一异常事件进行综合评估，计算出无量纲的、归一化的地震前兆综合危险度，分析了１９９５年９月２０日山东苍山５２Ｍｓ级地震前综合危险度的变化特征。震前综合危险度出现了一次明显的高值异常变化，震后危险度很快下降恢复到正常水平。
The comprehensive risk of earthquake precursors is a new method of integrated earthquake prediction based on system theory. Based on the earthquake precursory anomalies given by the earthquake consultation report at the end of each year of Shandong Province rather than the summaries of earthquakes taken after the earthquake or the anomalies given in the essay, a comprehensive assessment of each anomaly is made through the idea of “expert system” The dimensionless and normalized synthetic precursor risk of earthquake precursors was calculated. The characteristics of comprehensive risk before the 5.2 M Ms earthquake in Cangshan, Shandong Province on September 20, 1995 were analyzed. The comprehensive risk before the earthquake showed a significant high-value anomalous changes, the risk of post-earthquake quickly dropped back to normal levels.