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在全球气候变化背景下,我国黑龙江地区热量资源显著增加。从生态适宜度的角度分析了黑龙江地区改一熟制为大麦-荞麦二熟制的可行性。首先基于作物生育期特点及前人研究成果,利用温度、降水、日照和生态适宜度模型计算适宜度值,并通过生态适宜度与相对气象产量的相关分析确定作物减产临界值,以减产率为0、15%和30%作为作物适宜度划分阈值,进一步利用ArcGIS进行栅格叠加产生大麦-荞麦二熟制生态适宜度分布图,发现黑龙江部分地区已具备发展二熟制的生态条件。大麦-荞麦二熟制与传统种植模式对比,显示出明显的经济效益,即使灌溉一次仍有一定优势;最后从经济效益和劳动力需求两方面分析大麦-荞麦社会效益,表明大麦-荞麦模式具有较高推广度。
In the context of global climate change, China’s heat resources in Heilongjiang Province increased significantly. From the point of view of ecological suitability, the feasibility of changing one ripening system to second generation of barley and buckwheat in Heilongjiang was analyzed. First, based on the characteristics of crop growth period and previous studies, the model of temperature, precipitation, sunlight and ecological suitability was used to calculate the fitness value. The cut-off value of crop was determined through the correlation analysis between ecological suitability and relative weather yield. 0,15% and 30% as crop suitability thresholds, further use of ArcGIS for raster overlay to generate ecological suitability map of barley-buckwheat two-cropping system, and found that some areas in Heilongjiang have the ecological conditions for the development of second-cropping system. Compared with the traditional planting mode, barley-buckwheat two-cropping system shows obvious economic benefits, even if irrigated once. At last, it analyzes the social benefits of barley-buckwheat from the economic efficiency and labor demand that the barley-buckwheat mode has more advantages High promotion.