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本文从文献统计学的角度证明:印刷载体型的文献资料增长到一定数量后,一定时期内某一学科的文献总量(年报导量)有保持相对稳定的趋势,并尝试利用布拉福德曲线对期刊文献增长情况作了粗略的定性预测。计算机检索的发展及电子技术进入情报学领域,大大提高了情报处理和情报检索的能力。发展计算机情报处理检索系统,应根据我国实际情况,注意经济收益和实际效果,稳步发展。
This paper proves from the perspective of literature statistics that after a certain amount of printed literature has been established, the total amount of articles (annual reports) in a certain subject during a certain period tends to be relatively stable, and attempts to use Bradford's The curve made a rough qualitative prediction of the growth of periodical literature. The development of computerized search and the introduction of electronic technology into the field of information science have greatly enhanced the intelligence processing and intelligence retrieval capabilities. The development of computer information retrieval system should be based on China's actual situation, pay attention to economic returns and the actual effect of steady development.