三种时间序列模型在地下水动态模拟中的应用分析

• 作 者: 成兴广 成绍华 马福才
• 机 构: 水利部农田灌溉研究所!新乡，453003,水利部农田灌溉研究所!新乡，453003,焦作工学院!焦作，454000
• 出 处: 建材地质
• 发表日期: 1997年02期
• 关键词: 地下水运动 时间序列模型 谐波分析 迭合模型 农田水利工程 土壤水分 模型精度 模拟精度 区域气候 鲁西平原

地下水系统是一个复杂的时间序列系统，其变化与区域气候条件和生态环境密切相关，具有明显的年际周期性变化和随机性波动。用合适的模型描述地下水位动态变化，可以极大地提高地下水位的预测精度，使田间土壤水分的适时适量调节方便可行；对于农田水利工程的规划和管理也有所裨益。本文通过三种时间序列模型对地下水实测资料的模拟，阐述了这三种模型的特点和模拟精度。

Groundwater system is a complex time-series system. Its variation is closely related to regional climatic conditions and ecological environment, with obvious annual interannual variability and random fluctuations. Using suitable models to describe the dynamic changes of groundwater level can greatly improve the prediction accuracy of groundwater level and make it convenient and timely to adjust the appropriate amount of soil moisture in the field. It is also beneficial to the planning and management of farmland water conservancy projects. In this paper, three kinds of time series models are used to simulate the measured data of groundwater, and the characteristics and simulation accuracy of these three models are expounded.