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从目前情况来看,我们认为机构再次博弈的价值基础和价格基础均已经逐步成熟。首先,来自宏观基本面的阶段性稳定,决定了企业的相对估值水平将趋于平稳;其次,尽管市场持续下跌的时间尚未达到历史极限,但无论从P/E、P/B来说,A股市场都已经具备了明显的绝对价格(或者成本)吸引力。最后,我们还发现市场的主要机构参与者基金的平均仓位和持仓集中度都双双达到历史最低点,这也意味着基金之间,为取得“相对优势”而进行的博弈高压随时可能得到释放。因此,8月份,我们建议的主要策略是:在恐慌性下跌的尾声阶段,金字塔式逐步加仓买入,大跌大买。
Judging from the current situation, we think that the value basis and the price basis of the game of the institution have gradually matured. First of all, the staged stability from the macro fundamentals determines that the relative valuation of enterprises will stabilize. Secondly, although the time when the market continues to fall has not yet reached the historical limit, in terms of P / E and P / B, A-share market already has a clear absolute price (or cost) attraction. Finally, we also find that both the average position and the concentration of positions in the major institutional players’ funds in the market have both reached historic lows. This also means that the high pressures of betting on the funds for “comparative advantage” may be released at any time. Therefore, in August, we suggest that the main strategy is: In the end of the panic decline, the pyramid gradually Jiakang buy, plunge big buy.