论文部分内容阅读
目的 :近几十年来 ,中国男性的烟草消耗大幅度增加 ,因而需要监测与烟草有关的死亡率及其不断发展的流行趋势。设计 :对 2 2 4 5 0 0名被观察者最终将进行几十年随访 ,以进行吸烟与死亡率的前瞻性研究。背景 :分布于中国的 4 5个有代表性的城市与农村小区。对象 :1990年 ,对调查点 4 0岁及以上男性人群中的 80 %进行关于吸烟、饮酒情况及病史的调查询问。主要结果测定 :截止至 1995年的疾病别死亡率 (研究还将继续 )。在对地区、年龄及饮酒情况标化后 ,测定吸烟与不吸烟者的相对危险度。结果 :研究对象的 74 %是吸烟者 ( 73 %是目前吸烟者 ,仅 1%是过去吸烟者 ) ,但在这代人中仅少数从青年期大量吸卷烟。吸烟者总死亡率增高 (相对危险度 1.19;95 %可信区间为 1.13～1.2 5 ,P <0 .0 0 0 1)。几乎所有的超额死亡与肿瘤、呼吸道疾病或血管疾病有关。目前与吸烟有关的总死亡相对危险度 ,农村地区 (开始吸烟时间为 2 0岁前、2 0～ 2 4岁或较大年龄者分别为 1.2 6,1.12或 1.0 2 )比城市地区 (分别为 1.73、1.4 0或1.16)相对为低。结论 :本项前瞻性研究与同期发表的回顾性研究表明 ,在 1990年 ,吸烟所致的死亡约占中国中年男性死亡的 12 % ,预计在 2 0 3 0年时这个比例将上升至 3 3 %。长期继续的前瞻性研究 (?
PURPOSE: In recent decades, the drastic increase in tobacco consumption by Chinese men has led to the need to monitor tobacco-related mortality and its evolving epidemic trends. Design: A prospective study of 22 5400 subjects who will eventually undergo decades of follow-up for smoking and mortality. Background: 45 representative cities and rural areas in China. PARTICIPANTS: In 1990, 80% of male respondents aged 40 and over in the survey were asked about their smoking, alcohol consumption and medical history. Key Outcome Measures: No Disease Mortality by 1995 (Study Will Continue). The relative risk of smokers and non-smokers was determined after standardization of the area, age and drinking conditions. RESULTS: Seventy-four percent of study participants were smokers (73% were current smokers and only 1% were former smokers), but only a handful of smokers of this generation smoked cigarettes in adolescence. Total smoker mortality increased (relative risk 1.19; 95% confidence interval 1.13 to 1.2 5, P <.001). Almost all excess mortality is associated with cancer, respiratory disease, or vascular disease. The current relative risk of total smoking-related deaths in rural areas (beginning of smoking before the age of 20, 20 to 24 years of age or older were 1.2 6,1.12 or 1.02 respectively) than in urban areas (respectively 1.73, 1.4 or 1.16) is relatively low. Conclusion: This prospective study and a retrospective study published in the same period show that in 1990, smoking-related deaths accounted for about 12% of Chinese middle-aged men. It is estimated that this proportion will rise to 3 in 2003 3%. Long-term prospective study (?