论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨山西省运城市某流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)高发县蚊虫密度与气象因素之间的关系,筛选适合因子预测蚊虫密度变化趋势。方法监测2007-2009年5-10月运城市某县蚊虫密度并收集同期气象资料,气象数据经膨化处理,用SPSS 17.0软件分析两者相关性,并用逐步回归分析建立蚊虫密度的气象因子拟合模型。结果蚊虫季节消长曲线为单峰型,5月出现,8月达高峰,10月消亡。蚊虫密度与月平均温度、月平均气压等相关,与月日照、相对湿度无关。逐步回归分析得出蚊虫密度的气压回归方程,ap_(02)(当月及前2个月的平均气压)和ap_1(提前1个月的平均气压)有良好的拟合效果,两者相比ap_1具有更好的实际操作性。结论气象因素对蚊虫密度有重要影响,可以利用气压拟合模型预测蚊虫密度变化趋势。
Objective To explore the relationship between mosquito density and meteorological factors in a high incidence of Japanese encephalitis (JE) in Yuncheng City of Shanxi Province, and to screen suitable factors to predict the trends of mosquito density changes. Methods The mosquito density of a certain county of Yuncheng from May to October in 2007-2009 was monitored and the meteorological data of the same period were collected. The meteorological data were processed by puffing. SPSS 17.0 software was used to analyze the correlation between the mosquito density and meteorological data of the mosquito population by stepwise regression analysis model. Results The seasonal fluctuation curves of mosquitoes were unimodal, appearing in May and reaching the peak in August, and disappeared in October. Mosquito density and monthly average temperature, monthly mean pressure and other related, and the sunshine, the relative humidity has nothing to do. The regression equation of mosquito density was obtained by stepwise regression analysis. There was a good fitting effect between ap_ (02) (mean air pressure in the current month and the first two months) and ap_1 (average air pressure one month in advance) Has a better practicality. Conclusion The meteorological factors have an important influence on mosquito density, and the atmospheric pressure fitting model can be used to predict the trend of mosquito density.