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为研究影响内蒙古自治区碳排放量的因素,本文基于2008—2014年的统计指标,运用迪氏因素分解法(LMDI),对影响内蒙古人均碳排放量的因素进行分解,求出各个要素对碳排放量影响的具体数值、影响程度;运用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对内蒙古人均二氧化碳排放量进行预测,观察趋势;分析得出,在进一步加大技术投入,提高能源使用效率的基础上,优化能源结构,优化产业结构,是实现内蒙古自治区经济绿色循环低碳发展的必由之路。
In order to study the factors influencing the carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, based on the statistical indicators of 2008-2014, we use Deviator Decomposition (LMDI) to decompose the factors affecting the per capita carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia, We use GM (1,1) gray prediction model to forecast per capita CO2 emissions in Inner Mongolia, and observe the trend. Based on the analysis, it is concluded that on the basis of further increasing technical input and improving energy efficiency, Optimizing the energy structure and optimizing the industrial structure are the only ways to achieve low-carbon economic development in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.