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The investment is an impor- tant engine for the economic development and the investment into real estate is one of the pillars of fixed assets investment. Thus， it is not hard to understand that the economic development of many provinces in China is highly dependent on the real estate investment.
China’s media CBN Daily made an overall calculation of the proportion of real estate investment in the fixed assets investment of different provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities in the first half of this year. The Top 10 regions in terms of the number are， from high to low， Shanghai （55%）， Beijing （52%）， Hainan （46%）， Guizhou （33%）， Chongqing （33%）， Guangdong （32%）， Zhejiang（30%）， Fujian （26%）， Yunnan （26%） and Liaoning （22%）.
However， the number alone is not enough to judge the dependence of a regional economy on the real estate investment. That’s because the core cities like Beijing and Shanghai have a little space for the infrastructural and industrial investment. The real estate investment takes a large part in the fixed assets investment， but they weigh less for the GDP.
If the denominator is changed from the fixed assets investment into the GDP， then the sequence in terms of reliance of regions’ GDP on fixed assets investment is， from high to low， Hainan （36%）， Guizhou （27%）， Yunnan （25%）， Chongqing （23%）， Fujian （22%）， Liaoning （21%）， Ningxia （21%）， Anhui （21%）， Zhejiang（18%） and Sichuan （16%）. Compared with the previous list， Beijing， Shanghai and Guangdong have been removed.
From the two lists we can see that Hainan， Guizhou， Chongqing， Zhejiang， Fujian， Yunnan and Liaoning， which appear in the Top 10 of both lists， are the provinces most dependent on the real estate investment.
Coastal Areas Have Higher Proportion of Real Estate Investment
In all provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities， Beijing and Shanghai， the top two cities in China， both have the real estate investment account for over 50% of their total fixed assets investment.
Zhang Dawei， chief market analyst of Centaline Group， says that Shanghai and Beijing are provincial-level administrative body despite their being called the city. After years’ development， the two cities got improved infrastructure and has little space for the massive urban construction and big industrial investment. “The denominator （fixed assets investment） is smaller. So the proportion of （real estate investment） is high.”
Tianjin is the only exception of all provincial-level municipalities in China. In recent years， Tianjin developed very fast as a large number of projects have been built in the Binhai New District. Therefore， its industrial investment is quite high. Therefore， the industrial investment is high， pushing its fixed assets investment volume to a level higher than the total of Beijing and Shanghai. In addition， Tianjin is not so attractive for outsiders as Beijing and Shanghai， so the real estate investment is not high. The other developed regions， such as Guangdong， Zhejiang and Fujian， also witnessed decreased industrial investment after years’ development. Their in-frastructure is good as well. In addition， many enterprises in the real industries have thrown their capital into the real estate， pushing the proportion of real estate investment in the fixed assets investment.
Yan Yuejin， a fellow with Shanghai Easy Job Housing Institute， says that the Beijing， Shanghai， Guangdong， Zhejiang and Fujian boast good economic conditions， attracting a lot of people to move there. There are big industrial clusters， also pushing up the demand for the real estate development. The developed private economy and real economy in these places mean there are a lot of investors who are able to put money into the real estate sector only if they want to， an addition to the fast development of real estate in these places.
However， compared with these aforementioned provinces/municipalities， Hainan， Yunnan， and Guizhou， whose economy is not that developed， still have the real estate investment take a large part in the fixed assets investment. An important reason is that these provinces are known for their tourism， which boosts the development of real estate intensively. For example， more than 100 real estate enterprises set up forces in Hainan after the initiation of the Hainan International Tourism Island at the beginning of 2010. The land close to the bays was soon in the short supply and a huge amount of capital flow into the real estate sectors of Hainan.
The same thing also happened to Yunnan. The national- or even worldknown tourism cities like Kunming and Xishuangbanna have seen the entry of swarms of real estate development companies. In addition， the subtropical and tropical climate in South China is quite appealing for people of North China who will go there in winter.
Less Weighty Real Estate in Energy-Driven Provinces
On the other hand， the last ten provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities in the list of proportion of real estate investment into fixed assets investment are Jilin （6%）， Inner Mongolia （7%）， Gansu （7%）， Jiangxi （7%）， Qinghai （10%）， Xinjiang （11%）， Shanxi （11%）， Guangxi（12%）， Henan （14%） and Hunan （14%）.
The analysts find that the places with low proportion of real estate investment into the fixed assets investment are mostly the northern provinces based on chemical industry and energy industry， or the central and western provinces with few big cities. The industrial investment in these places are usually quite high while the real estate investment keeps low， leading to the relatively smaller proportion of real estate investment in the fixed asses investment. In these years， Shandong， Tianjin， Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi saw fast growing economy. The GDP per capita in Inner Mongolia even surpassed that of Guangdong and Fujian， but these provinces are largely based on heavy chemical industry and large state-owned enterprises. They are mostly driven by the investment while the third industry， light industry and private sector play a minor role in the economic development. The structure has impressive effect on the increase of GP and governmental income， but applies limited effect on employment and citizens’ income.
“The kinds of economic structure decides the income level， which further decides the housing price and real estate investment，” says Ding Changfa， an associate professor with the Economic Department of Xiamen University. The income per capita in northern and western provinces is unable to be increased and the housing price there stays at a low level too. Their land cannot be sold either.
Zhang Dawei says that the industry-driven provinces in North China see a large amount of industrial investment by state-owned enterprises. Actually， a certain part of the investment flows into the real estate construction， such as the slum reconstruction in Northeast China. This part， however， is not included into the data of real estate.
“The housing market in some northern provinces of China is not matured and a large part of them are noncommercial residential dwellers，” Zhang Dawei says. The less developed economy there， and the limited number of migrants have made it hard for the housing price to increase in these places.
In Yan Yuejin’s opinion， provinces like Shandong where the agriculture plays an important role in the economic development are unlikely to move the resources in agriculture into the real estate sector. Therefore， Shandong and provinces sharing similar economic structure， namely Henan， Jiangxi and Gansu， also have low proportion of real estate investment in the fixed assets investment.
China’s media CBN Daily made an overall calculation of the proportion of real estate investment in the fixed assets investment of different provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities in the first half of this year. The Top 10 regions in terms of the number are， from high to low， Shanghai （55%）， Beijing （52%）， Hainan （46%）， Guizhou （33%）， Chongqing （33%）， Guangdong （32%）， Zhejiang（30%）， Fujian （26%）， Yunnan （26%） and Liaoning （22%）.
However， the number alone is not enough to judge the dependence of a regional economy on the real estate investment. That’s because the core cities like Beijing and Shanghai have a little space for the infrastructural and industrial investment. The real estate investment takes a large part in the fixed assets investment， but they weigh less for the GDP.
If the denominator is changed from the fixed assets investment into the GDP， then the sequence in terms of reliance of regions’ GDP on fixed assets investment is， from high to low， Hainan （36%）， Guizhou （27%）， Yunnan （25%）， Chongqing （23%）， Fujian （22%）， Liaoning （21%）， Ningxia （21%）， Anhui （21%）， Zhejiang（18%） and Sichuan （16%）. Compared with the previous list， Beijing， Shanghai and Guangdong have been removed.
From the two lists we can see that Hainan， Guizhou， Chongqing， Zhejiang， Fujian， Yunnan and Liaoning， which appear in the Top 10 of both lists， are the provinces most dependent on the real estate investment.
Coastal Areas Have Higher Proportion of Real Estate Investment
In all provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities， Beijing and Shanghai， the top two cities in China， both have the real estate investment account for over 50% of their total fixed assets investment.
Zhang Dawei， chief market analyst of Centaline Group， says that Shanghai and Beijing are provincial-level administrative body despite their being called the city. After years’ development， the two cities got improved infrastructure and has little space for the massive urban construction and big industrial investment. “The denominator （fixed assets investment） is smaller. So the proportion of （real estate investment） is high.”
Tianjin is the only exception of all provincial-level municipalities in China. In recent years， Tianjin developed very fast as a large number of projects have been built in the Binhai New District. Therefore， its industrial investment is quite high. Therefore， the industrial investment is high， pushing its fixed assets investment volume to a level higher than the total of Beijing and Shanghai. In addition， Tianjin is not so attractive for outsiders as Beijing and Shanghai， so the real estate investment is not high. The other developed regions， such as Guangdong， Zhejiang and Fujian， also witnessed decreased industrial investment after years’ development. Their in-frastructure is good as well. In addition， many enterprises in the real industries have thrown their capital into the real estate， pushing the proportion of real estate investment in the fixed assets investment.
Yan Yuejin， a fellow with Shanghai Easy Job Housing Institute， says that the Beijing， Shanghai， Guangdong， Zhejiang and Fujian boast good economic conditions， attracting a lot of people to move there. There are big industrial clusters， also pushing up the demand for the real estate development. The developed private economy and real economy in these places mean there are a lot of investors who are able to put money into the real estate sector only if they want to， an addition to the fast development of real estate in these places.
However， compared with these aforementioned provinces/municipalities， Hainan， Yunnan， and Guizhou， whose economy is not that developed， still have the real estate investment take a large part in the fixed assets investment. An important reason is that these provinces are known for their tourism， which boosts the development of real estate intensively. For example， more than 100 real estate enterprises set up forces in Hainan after the initiation of the Hainan International Tourism Island at the beginning of 2010. The land close to the bays was soon in the short supply and a huge amount of capital flow into the real estate sectors of Hainan.
The same thing also happened to Yunnan. The national- or even worldknown tourism cities like Kunming and Xishuangbanna have seen the entry of swarms of real estate development companies. In addition， the subtropical and tropical climate in South China is quite appealing for people of North China who will go there in winter.
Less Weighty Real Estate in Energy-Driven Provinces
On the other hand， the last ten provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities in the list of proportion of real estate investment into fixed assets investment are Jilin （6%）， Inner Mongolia （7%）， Gansu （7%）， Jiangxi （7%）， Qinghai （10%）， Xinjiang （11%）， Shanxi （11%）， Guangxi（12%）， Henan （14%） and Hunan （14%）.
The analysts find that the places with low proportion of real estate investment into the fixed assets investment are mostly the northern provinces based on chemical industry and energy industry， or the central and western provinces with few big cities. The industrial investment in these places are usually quite high while the real estate investment keeps low， leading to the relatively smaller proportion of real estate investment in the fixed asses investment. In these years， Shandong， Tianjin， Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi saw fast growing economy. The GDP per capita in Inner Mongolia even surpassed that of Guangdong and Fujian， but these provinces are largely based on heavy chemical industry and large state-owned enterprises. They are mostly driven by the investment while the third industry， light industry and private sector play a minor role in the economic development. The structure has impressive effect on the increase of GP and governmental income， but applies limited effect on employment and citizens’ income.
“The kinds of economic structure decides the income level， which further decides the housing price and real estate investment，” says Ding Changfa， an associate professor with the Economic Department of Xiamen University. The income per capita in northern and western provinces is unable to be increased and the housing price there stays at a low level too. Their land cannot be sold either.
Zhang Dawei says that the industry-driven provinces in North China see a large amount of industrial investment by state-owned enterprises. Actually， a certain part of the investment flows into the real estate construction， such as the slum reconstruction in Northeast China. This part， however， is not included into the data of real estate.
“The housing market in some northern provinces of China is not matured and a large part of them are noncommercial residential dwellers，” Zhang Dawei says. The less developed economy there， and the limited number of migrants have made it hard for the housing price to increase in these places.
In Yan Yuejin’s opinion， provinces like Shandong where the agriculture plays an important role in the economic development are unlikely to move the resources in agriculture into the real estate sector. Therefore， Shandong and provinces sharing similar economic structure， namely Henan， Jiangxi and Gansu， also have low proportion of real estate investment in the fixed assets investment.