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[目的]分析无锡市区居民4种主要消化道恶性肿瘤死亡率的变化情况,探讨其变化规律和可能的变化趋势。[方法]采用对数线性模型对80年代以来无锡市区居民消化道恶性肿瘤死亡资料进行时间趋势分析,并采用灰色动态模型预测近期死亡率。[结果]27年间无锡市区居民4种消化道恶性肿瘤粗死亡率呈上升趋势(P值﹤0.001),而标化死亡率却呈下降趋势(P值﹤0.001);时间趋势分析结果显示:食管癌不管是粗死亡率还是标化死亡率均呈显著下降态势(P值﹤0.001);而胃癌粗死亡率变化趋势差异无统计学意义(P值﹥0.05),标化死亡率却有显著下降的趋势(P值﹤0.05);肠癌的粗死亡率有显著上升的趋势(P值﹤0.05),但是标化死亡率变化不明显(P值﹥0.05);肝癌的粗死亡率和标化死亡率均未有显著变化(P值﹥0.05)。用GM模型对这4种癌症的拟合结果显示,食管癌标化率与肠癌粗率的拟合较好,预测至2012年标化率降至4.88/10万,而肠癌持续2012年粗率上升至16.57/10万。[结论]人口老龄化使得我市区消化道恶性肿瘤死亡绝对数未有显著减少,消化道恶性肿瘤仍将成为该市未来肿瘤控制计划的重点,大力加强肿瘤登记等基础信息的建设、控制主要危险因素及大力推进肿瘤一、二级预防是近年来肿瘤控制的关键。
[Objective] To analyze the changes of mortality of four main digestive tract malignancies in urban residents of Wuxi and discuss their changing rules and possible changing trends. [Methods] The logarithmic linear model was used to analyze the time trend of the death data of gastrointestinal malignant tumors in Wuxi urban area since the 1980s. The gray dynamic model was used to predict the recent mortality rate. [Results] The crude mortality rates of four kinds of gastrointestinal malignancies in urban areas of Wuxi in the past 27 years showed an upward trend (P <0.001), while the standardized mortality rate showed a downward trend (P <0.001). The trend analysis of time showed that: There was a significant decrease in both crude and standardized mortality in esophageal cancer (P <0.001), while there was no significant difference in the trend of crude mortality in esophageal cancer (P> 0.05), but the standardized mortality was significantly higher (P <0.05). The crude mortality of colorectal cancer increased significantly (P <0.05), but the change of standardized mortality was insignificant (P> 0.05). The crude mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma was There was no significant change in the mortality rate (P> 0.05). The fitting results of these four kinds of cancers by GM model show that the standardization rate of esophageal cancer and the rough rate of intestine cancer are better, and the standardization rate is expected to drop to 4.88 / 100,000 by 2012, while that of colorectal cancer lasts for 2012 Rose to 16.57 / 100,000. [Conclusion] The population aging led to the fact that the absolute number of malignant tumor of digestive tract in urban area did not decrease significantly. The malignant tumor of digestive tract would still be the focal point of the future cancer control plan in the city. Vigorously strengthen the construction of basic information such as tumor registration and control Risk factors and vigorously promote the tumor A, secondary prevention is the key to tumor control in recent years.