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主要讨论在设计工程的过程中，项目计划人员的决策选择与费用估算人员的贡献之间的关系。通过对一个竞标过程进行模拟的例子，阐明了一个估算完全可以用其概率函数加以描述，并且估算的期望值及其不确定性都与计划决策有关。许多项目决策可以依据费用估算的期望值来做出。但如果各种估算的方差之间有较大程度的重叠，那么，这些决策就会面临出现错误的风险。为了减小各种估算的方差，必须进一步收集费用信息资料。通过计算机模拟，计算了一个典型的商业竞标情形对利润的影响情况；通过采用另一项研究中估算方法的开发费用与方法估算精度的关系数据及模拟结果，可计算出固定价格竞标情况下使利润最大化时估算方法的开发费用。
It mainly discusses the relationship between the decision-making of the project planner and the contribution of the cost estimator in the process of designing the project. By simulating an auction process, it is clarified that an estimate can be fully described by its probability function, and the estimated value and its uncertainty are related to the plan decision. Many project decisions can be made based on the expected value of the cost estimate. However, if there is a large degree of overlap between the variances of various estimates, then these decisions will face the risk of errors. In order to reduce the variance of various estimates, the cost information must be further collected. Through computer simulations, the impact of a typical commercial bidding scenario on profits was calculated; by using the data and simulation results of the development cost and method estimation accuracy of another research method, the fixed price bidding can be calculated. The cost of estimating the development method for maximizing profits.