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新安江水库来水年际变化大,水库特丰来水年预报对水库发电、防洪等综合利用功能的发挥具有重要意义。文中以新安江特丰来水年为研究对象,基于可公度预测理论,应用三元、五元预测模型进行计算分析。预测结果显示2014年新安江水库来水特丰,有发生类似于1983年特丰来水的可能;同时预报新安江水库2012年为丰水年。
The Xinanjiang reservoir water interannual variation is large, and the prediction of the reservoir special abundance water coming year is of great significance to the reservoir power generation, flood control and other comprehensive utilization functions. In this paper, Xinfengjiang Special Fenglai Water Year is taken as the research object. Based on the commensurability prediction theory, the three yuan and five yuan forecasting models are used for calculation and analysis. The forecast results show that the Xin’anjiang Reservoir had a very rich water supply in 2014, which may have occurred similar to that of the special flood coming in 1983; meanwhile, the Xin’anjiang Reservoir is forecast to have a wet year in 2012.