论文部分内容阅读
南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区的旱涝遭遇性是跨流域水资源调配与管理运行的重要依据。利用我国近500a旱涝等级历史资料和近几十年的实测雨量资料,进行了南水北调工程水源区与海河受水区历史旱涝特征分析,并采用集对分析法对水源区与海河受水区的旱涝遭遇进行了研究。结果表明:南水北调中线水源区与海河受水区历史上旱涝灾害频发,持续性旱涝灾害严重,近3个世纪以来旱涝灾害发生次数和程度都呈现出增加的趋势。水源区与海河受水区旱涝的联系度很低,两个区域的旱涝状态同步性比较差,旱涝遭遇情况对工程调水有利的几率为56.7%,对工程调水不利的几率为24.88%。因此,要使南水北调工程发挥最大效益和价值,还需要其他水利工程配合进行合理调控。
The Drought and Flood Encounter in Water Source Area and Water Receiving Area of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is an Important Basis for Inter-basin Water Resources Allocation and Management Operation. Using history data of drought and waterlogging level in recent 500 years in our country and measured rainfall data in recent decades, the characteristics of water source area in South-North Water Diversion Project and historical flood and waterlogging in the water receiving area of Haihe River were analyzed, and the water source area and Haihe water receiving area Droughts and floods were studied. The results show that in the middle reaches of South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the Haihe River Receiving Area, droughts and floods are frequent in the history, and persistent drought and flood disasters are serious. The occurrence frequency and degree of droughts and floods in the past three centuries all show an increasing trend. The water source area has a low contact with drought and flood in the water receiving area of Haihe River. The synoptic status of drought and flood in the two areas is relatively poor. The probability of droughts and floods being favorable to water diversion is 56.7% 24.88%. Therefore, in order to maximize the benefits and value of the South-North Water Diversion Project, other water conservancy projects will also need to be properly regulated.