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小麦黄矮病是一种间歇性暴发病害。我县七十年代有1973、1978两个大流行年份,这两年小麦因黄矮病约减产30%左右。由于黄矮病是暴发性病害,一旦流行就会造成灾害。因此,搞好长期预报,适时指导防治,就显得特别重要。目前,用数理统计方法对黄矮病预测预报的还不多,我们参考陕西省“气象因子综合分析”法结合我县实际情况选择因子,并通过运算,对已往的发生情况作了验证,对1980年的情况作了预测,基本和实际相符。
Wheat yellow dwarf is an intermittent outbreak disease. In the seventies of our county, there were two pandemic years of 1973 and 1978. The output of wheat in the past two years was reduced by about 30% due to yellow dwarf disease. As the yellow dwarf disease is an outbreak of disease, once the epidemic will cause disaster. Therefore, it is particularly important to do a good job of long-term forecasting and timely prevention and control. At present, using mathematical statistics method to predict and forecast the yellow dwarf disease is not much, we refer to Shaanxi Province “comprehensive analysis of meteorological factors” method with the actual situation in our county selection factor, and through the operation of the past to verify the occurrence of The situation in 1980 was predicted basically and practically.