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The G-7 is falling apart. Russia has been isolat- ed. The United Kingdom has isolated itself. Germany continues a tense relationship with much of Europe. The NATO alliance has been rocked， and the future of the European Union remains uncertain. The United States appears determined to oppose its oldest allies on climate， trade， immigration and perhaps still on Russia.
Out of chaos comes opportunity. There is an opportunity for the G-20， particularly the emerging Asian economies， to capitalize on these divisions， show leadership， break deadlocks and refresh the G-20. Most importantly， there’s a chance to make the G-20 less G-7-centric and entrench the position of the emerging markets in global governance.
Germany needed to find common ground with the Trump administration if it was to deliver an effective G-20 summit in Hamburg on Friday. Infrastructure， investment， multinational tax avoidance， terrorist financing and the impact of automation on displacing workers could have been fruitful areas for debate and cooperation.
But with the two-day summit just around the corner， Germany appears to have failed. Instead of seeking common ground， German Chancellor Angela Merkel has gone on the offensive. Unable to mask her contempt， she has mocked Trump’s speeches as being “culturally interesting.” She has quipped that “it’s interesting to see the thought environment he inhabits.” She has warned that the EU might not be able to rely on the United States in the future.
As it looks right now， positive progress at the upcoming G-20 summit is off the table. The best hope is to limit how far backward the G-20 slides on global cooperation.
A primary appeal of the G-20 to leaders is that it delivers them political wins. Used productively， it can help them address global challenges that impact their economies. It can also help them sell a policy domestically， give them a new policy idea， give international context to their problems and bolster their credibility as statespersons on the international stage.
Used unproductively， the G-20 can also be used for cheap political-point scoring. Rather than cooperation on big global challenges， scarce political capital and media coverage at the upcoming summit could be wasted on petty rivalries： The handshake between Trump and Macron. Whether Merkel gets a handshake at all. Whether Trump and Putin look too cozy. Whether Trump decides to physically push anyone. And whether he walks with the other leaders to the meeting or takes off with his golf cart alone. The G-7 meeting in May was Trump’s opportunity to air his grievances about the United States’ oldest allies. The G-20 in July is his opportunity to air his grievances about the emerging market economies， of which he appears to have many more. Unfair trade， currency manipulation， climate hoaxes， immigration， military expansion — Trump is bringing a long list of complaints to Hamburg.
Far from being a punching bag， the emerging Asian economies need to grab the initiative presented by a divided G-7 to benefit themselves and refresh the G-20.
The solidarity of the G-7 voting bloc was a hindrance to emerging countries’ establishing common ground with individual G-7 countries. There is now room for them to maneuver on climate change， trade and development. Strengthening relations with France， Germany and the United Kingdom issue by issue is on the agenda. China has already been proactive in vowing to partner with Europe in reducing emissions. While the United States is busy tearing up trade agreements， China and other Asian economies can work with Europe， Russia and the United Kingdom， who are desperate for bilateral progress on trade.
Asian G-20 countries can give Germany much-needed deliverables in its G-20 host year and demonstrate leadership in the process. They can boost the G-20’s flailing growth agenda by articulating domestic reform programs to bolster the growth strategy process. The G-20 committed to increase G-20 gross domestic product by 2.1% by 2018. Instead， it is currently forecast to fall 6%. Asia’s domestic actions on climate change， trade， financial reform and investment can feature in the Hamburg Action Plan and give it credibility on serious structural reform.
Asian G-20 countries could bolster their leadership credentials by unilaterally funding G-20 initiatives like the Global Infrastructure Hub. They could strengthen the global financial safety net by creating additional currency swap lines and use their regional clout to push for further cooperation between the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization and the International Monetary Fund. China could seek G-20 endorsement for the “Belt and Road” initiative， or at least have it reflected in the growth strategies and the Hamburg Action Plan.
A divided G-7 gives Asia a time to shine. The G-20 gives it a platform on which to do it. A strong G-20 and progress on trade， investment， financial stability， climate and growth are manifestly in the interests of the global community. Both cheer and fear were in evidence at this year’s annual Group of 20 summit when the curtains opened at the G-20 forum in Hamburg last week. Despite positive signs about global economic recovery， leaders offered divided opinion on a number of issues， posing fresh challenges for global governance. The G-20 summit itself is also undergoing a change in focus， shifting from economic and financial matters to a broader range of issues.
In the wake of the global financial crisis， the G-20 has become the most important dialogue mechanism for global leaders to promote international economic cooperation. It has played a crucial role in forging joint efforts to drag the global economy out of danger. But as growth revives， member nations have begun to divert their attention away from the common goal of fighting the crisis. The U.S. pullback from multilateral cooperation has further deepened that global di- vergence.
Germany hosted this year’s summit under the theme of“Shaping an Interconnected World，” with its main agenda focusing on building economic resilience， improving sustainability and assuming greater responsibility. Topics on the table at this year’s summit covered a much wider range than in previous years， reflecting the expanding vision and responsibility of the G-20 while also making it more difficult to form a con-sensus.
The challenges facing the G-20 shed light on the complexities of the world. With an increasingly inward-looking U.S. and a more-divided Europe， many have asked whether China will step up and fill the emerging shortfall in global leadership. It is time for China to consider carefully and map out strategies for tackling major international problems， including some less relevant to itself， such as the global refugee crisis， and take greater responsibility as expected of it.
The global economy is showing signs of recovery but risks of a further slowdown still remain. The International Monetary Fund said before the G-20 meeting that the global economy is seeing an upswing， and both trade and GDP growth were expected to improve this year. But it also warned of potential risks to growth from protectionist policies and a failure to cooperate in areas such as climate change.
The U.S. economy is reviving steadily， but uncertainties stemming from the Trump administration’s protectionist policies are apparent. The eurozone is also better off， but there are still challenges from its policies on refugees and in its banking sector. At the same time， many emerging economies are being tested by their own growth transformation. A sustained global economic recovery requires coordination among countries to consolidate the positive policy effects while reducing the spillover from negative ones.
In the long run， structural reform offer a more fundamental solution for countries to enhance the resilience of their economies. But the pace of reform in many countries has slowed over the past years as pressures from the financial crisis ease and resistance rises from those hurt by reforms. But stalled reforms can also damage economies further， and it requires the determination and wisdom of global leaders to push reform efforts forward.
At the Hamburg summit， discussions about climate change， the refugee crisis， anti-terrorism measures and the development of Africa drew wide interest， indicating that the broadening scope of the focus of global governance is expanding beyond traditional economic issues. But it also poses greater challenges to coordinating efforts globally. For example， the disagreement between the U.S. and European leaders on climate policy is adding more complexity to such coordination， especially after the Trump administration decided to pull out of the Paris accord.
Adapting to the new environment of global cooperation is a challenge for all major countries， including China. Pursuing agreement and practical cooperation while respecting differences will likely be the most workable strategy. China should try its hardest to promote global cooperation while sticking to its own long-term development strategy.
Taking concrete action is more useful than entering into a war of words， and countries should forge collaboration through consensus rather than focusing on disagreements. For instance， finance ministers and central bank governors from the G-20 in a March meeting dropped a long-standing endorsement of free trade by removing the phrase “we will resist all forms of protectionism” from the meeting’s communiqué due to opposition from the United States. But this does not stop leaders from promoting free trade in their day-to-day policymaking. The pace of globalization may be slowing， but it won’t be reversed. China has shown its commitment to free trade remains unchanged by further opening up its markets and creating a fairer business environment for foreign investors.
Countries can also seek coordination in issues with less disagreement. At this year’s G-20 summit， Germany proposed collective action to encourage companies of member countries to invest in Africa to boost development on the continent. China will be able to coordinate its “One Belt， One Road” initiative with this proposal to make its contribution to promoting global cooperation through inclusive development. As the U.S. continues to retreat from multilateral cooperation， many expect China to step up and fill the gap. But as a developing country， China’s top priority must still be to continue with domestic reform and development despite its growing influence on the global stage. The best way for China to assume its leadership is to set a good example to other countries， and take more responsibility for global affairs only when it fits with its own capacity and development strategy.
The growing complexity of global governance requires policymakers from China and other countries to enhance their adaptability and flexibility. The spirit if practical cooperation has never been more important for G-20 members. This year’s summit in Hamburg has made important commitments， and if these commitments can be concretely delivered regardless of existing disagreements， the G-20 will step up to become a more open， capable and tolerant platform for global governance.
