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以往国内利用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型进行实证研究的文献,大多是假设中国处在资本充足、充分就业的“新古典主义”宏观闭合框架下,忽视了我国目前处于二元经济的客观事实。本文基于中国现阶段的基本国情,建立了一个“刘易斯”宏观闭合下的CGE模型,并利用该方法模拟了2008年末我国启动的政府投资(1.18万亿)对经济各个方面产生的影响。模拟结果显示:政府投资将会在未来几年之内拉动实际GDP增长1.83%、提升总消费2.1%、社会总投资9.89%、进口额2.09%、出口额2.14%,同时将带来约1805万的新增就业机会。
In the past, most of the literature on empirical research using CGE models ignores the fact that China is under the macroeconomic closure of “neoclassical” with sufficient capital and full employment, ignoring the fact that China is currently in a dual economy Objective fact. Based on the current situation in China at present, this paper establishes a CGE model under the macro closure of “Lewis ” and uses this method to simulate the impact of the government investment (1.18 trillion) started by China in late 2008 on all aspects of the economy. The results of the simulation show that government investment will boost real GDP growth by 1.83%, increase total consumption by 2.1%, total social investment by 9.89%, import value by 2.09% and export value by 2.14% in the next few years and bring about 18.05 million New job opportunities.