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中国的企业杠杆率快速上升,主要因为债权融资规模增长快,股权融资占比维持在低位和资金配置效率下降。深层次因素包括:宏观利率水平低,民间资本投资壁垒多和国有企业追求规模最大化,国有企业财务软约束和治理不规范,资金需求方主导融资模式及资金供需存在不匹配性,全球化冲击货币政策独立有效性。政府在进行企业改革取舍选择时,理论上会先从竞争性生产服务类企业退出,通过基建投资对冲其他投资下滑和托底经济增长,对城市建设平台类企业债务处置的时间相对拖后。未来,政府应协调实现人民币国际化、汇率浮动以及外汇资产分散化藏汇于民,而居民的海外投资将是未来十几年的长期趋势。
The rapid increase in the leverage ratio of China’s enterprises is mainly due to the rapid increase in the scale of debt financing, the proportion of equity financing kept at a low level and the efficiency of capital allocation. The in-depth factors include: the low level of macro interest rates, the large number of private capital investment barriers and the pursuit of the maximum scale of state-owned enterprises, the soft financial constraints and governance of state-owned enterprises are not standardized, the capital demand side of the leading financing model and the mismatch between the supply and demand of funds, the impact of globalization The independence and effectiveness of monetary policy. When the government chooses to make business reforms, it will theoretically withdraw from competitive production and service companies, and hedge against other investments and infrastructure growth through infrastructure investment. The time for debt disposal by urban construction platform companies is relatively delayed. In the future, the government should coordinate the realization of internationalization of the renminbi, exchange rate fluctuations, and decentralization of foreign exchange assets to the people, while residents’ overseas investment will be a long-term trend in the next decade.