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以1961-2010年白龙江流域月均温、月降水和上游武都水文站月径流资料为基础,采用MannKendall法、R/S分析法和Morlet小波分析法,研究了白龙江上游水文气象要素的变化特征,并采用多元线性回归分析法探讨了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明:近50年来白龙江上游气温显著上升,降水微弱减少,径流显著减少。在未来一段时段内气温仍将持续上升,降水微弱增加,径流持续减少。气温、降水、径流具有多时间尺度特性,年均温、年降水和年径流有6-7年、12-13年、20年准周期。1961-1990年径流变化主要受气候变化影响,人类活动影响较小。1991-2010年径流变化受气候变化和人类活动的综合影响,两者作用相当。
Based on monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation in Bailongjiang River Basin and the monthly runoff data of Wudu hydrological station from 1961 to 2010, Mann-Kendall method, R / S analysis and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to study the variation characteristics of hydrological and meteorological elements in the upper reaches of Bailong River , And analyzed the impact of climate change and human activities on the runoff by using multiple linear regression analysis. The results show that in the past 50 years, the temperature in the upper reaches of Bailongjiang increased significantly, the precipitation decreased slightly and the runoff decreased significantly. Temperatures will continue to rise for a period of time to come, precipitation will increase slightly and runoff will continue to decrease. Temperature, precipitation and runoff have multi-time scale characteristics. Annual average temperature, annual precipitation and annual runoff are 6-7 years, 12-13 years and 20 years. The change of runoff in 1961-1990 was mainly affected by climate change, with less impact on human activities. The change of runoff in 1991-2010 is affected by the combined effects of climate change and human activities.