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本文应用电子计算机,采用判别分析法,根据浙江省富阳市1984～1995年共12年的历史资料.经6个预报因子对蘑菇害螨发生程度建立预测模型进行比较,筛选出上年7～8月份温湿系数,当年7～8月份总雨日及温度指数等三个因子,它们所组成的判别方程的预测效果最好,历史拟合率达91.7%,经两年的预测验证.结果与实际相吻合.
Based on the historical data of 12 years from 1984 to 1995 in Fuyang City, Zhejiang Province, this paper applies discriminant analysis method to compare the forecasting models of degree of occurrence of mushroom pests by 6 forecast factors and screened 7-8 Month temperature and humidity coefficient, total rainy day and temperature index from July to August of that year, the discriminant equations formed by them are the best predictors, with a historical fitting rate of 91.7% and a two-year prediction. Results The actual match.