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地震目录的完整性对CBS(Cumulative Benioff Strain)值计算结果影响较大,直接影响对特定地震区强震发生时间窗口的判断.对某些地震区数据分析时若考虑最小完整性震级Mc,则可大大降低预测临界CBS值和实际值之间的误差.为此,本文考虑Mc,对新疆及其邻区某些地震区未来震情进行重新研判,结果表明:Mc对拜城与库尔勒地震区的临界值和监测值影响不大,而对中吉边境、新源-阿拉木图、昆仑山口西和若羌地震区的临界值和监测值则有较大影响.目前拜城、库尔勒和若羌三个地震区均距临界状态较远,故预测发震时间窗口为中长期.中吉边境地震区和新源-阿拉木图地震区未来分别将有大震和巨震发生,按近期地震活动性判断,预测发震时间窗口为中长期.昆仑山口西地震区未来将发生强震,目前已接近临界状态,预测发震时间窗口为中短期.本文研究结果可供有关部门参考.
The completeness of the earthquake catalog has a great influence on the calculation results of the Cumulative Benioff Strain (CBS), which directly affects the judgment of the time window of strong earthquakes in a particular earthquake area. When the minimum completeness magnitude Mc is considered in some seismic data analysis Which can greatly reduce the error between the predicted critical CBS value and the actual value.Therefore, in this paper, we consider Mc to reconsider the future earthquake conditions in some earthquake areas in Xinjiang and its adjacent areas. The critical value and the monitoring value have little effect, but have a greater impact on the critical values and monitoring values of the Sino-Kyrgyzstan border, the Xinyuan-Almaty area, the west Kunlun Mountain Pass and the Ruoqiang Earthquake Area. Currently, Baicheng, Korla and Ruoqiang The three earthquake areas are far away from the critical state, so the time window for the occurrence of seismogenic events is predicted to be medium- and long-term. In the future, there will be major earthquakes and giant earthquakes respectively in the Sino-Kyrgyzstan border seismic area and the new source-Almaty area. According to the recent seismicity It is predicted that the seismogenic time window will be medium to long term.The strong earthquake will occur in the Kunlun Mountain western seismic area in the future and the critical period is approaching and the time window for the prediction of seismogenic events is short and medium term.The results of this paper are available for reference by relevant departments.