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针对电力行业建立了供给驱动模型、需求驱动模型和投入产出价格模型,定量分析了未来电力改革的主要方向——电力投资变化、电力价格水平波动以及电力供给变动对我国经济的影响。结果表明:电力生产需提前适度高于社会各部门平均水平,以满足经济快速发展的需要;在所有的基础设施行业中,电力投资对其它产业部门的辐射作用和影响力最大;电价水平的波动对居民消费价格指数影响较小,对高耗电产业影响较大。
A supply-driven model, a demand-driven model and an input-output price model are established for the power industry. The main directions of future power reform are quantitatively analyzed: the changes of power investment, the fluctuation of electricity prices and the impact of power supply changes on China’s economy. The results show that power production needs to be moderately higher than the average level of various social sectors in order to meet the needs of rapid economic development. In all infrastructure industries, power investment has the greatest radiation effect and influence on other industrial sectors. The fluctuation of electricity price levels The impact on the consumer price index is small, a greater impact on the high-power industry.