论文部分内容阅读
在内生增长模型的基础上,引入有关开放经济和技术溢出的假定,运用均衡分析推导出经济均衡增长路径,并以此构建计量模型,应用工具变量分位数回归(IVQR)实证分析进口贸易对经济增长的技术溢出效应以及技术吸收能力对溢出效果的影响,研究结果发现:进口贸易作为技术溢出的重要渠道,总体上对经济增长有显著的正向影响;丰富的人力资本促进了技术溢出;在我国经济增长率低的地区,对外开放促进了进口贸易的技术溢出,而在经济增长率高的地区,由于过度依赖进口和进口渗透率过高使得溢出效果为负但不显著;我国金融体系的不完善阻碍了技术溢出,并且随着分位数的增加,这种阻碍作用越凸显。
Based on the endogenous growth model, we introduce the assumptions about open economy and technology spillovers, use equilibrium analysis to derive the path of balanced economic growth, and construct an econometric model. We use instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) to empirically analyze import trade. With regard to the technical spillover effect of economic growth and the impact of technological absorptive capacity on spillover effects, the study found that: as an important channel for technological spillover, import trade has a significant positive impact on economic growth in general; abundant human capital promotes technological spillovers. In areas with low economic growth rates in China, opening up has promoted technological spillovers in import trades, while in regions with high economic growth rates, over-reliance on high import and import penetration rates has made spillovers negative but not significant; The imperfection of the system has hindered the technological spillover, and as the number of quantiles increases, this hindrance becomes more prominent.