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针对岩土工程中存在的土层参数和土层边界相关的认知不确定性问题,将模糊集合中α切割得到的模糊变量作为边坡稳定确定性分析中的输入参数,利用MIDAS/GTS内置的强度折减法进行安全系数的计算,通过假定不同的α值,得到了一系列相对应的安全系数值,综合这些安全系数值可得到边坡失效概率值,并通过算例对该方法进行了验证。结果表明,仅考虑土层参数的不确定性时,在相同最高隶属度值下,随着土层参数变化范围的增加,边坡的失效概率也随之增大;当考虑土层边界的不确定性后,土层参数变化范围的不同对计算结果的影响变小,因此在岩土工程实践中应充分重视土层边界的不确定性对工程设计的影响。
Aiming at the problem of the cognitive uncertainties related to the soil parameters and soil boundary in geotechnical engineering, the fuzzy variables obtained by α-cut in the fuzzy set are taken as the input parameters in the deterministic analysis of slope stability. By using the built-in MIDAS / GTS The strength reduction method is used to calculate the safety factor. By assuming different values of α, a series of corresponding safety factor values are obtained. Based on these safety factor values, the failure probability value of the slope can be obtained, and an example is given to illustrate the method. verification. The results show that considering the uncertainty of soil parameters, the failure probability of the slope increases with the increase of the range of soil parameter under the same highest membership value. When considering the boundary of soil layer After the certainty, the influence of the uncertainty of the boundary of the soil layer on the engineering design should be paid full attention to in the geotechnical engineering practice due to the different influence of the range of soil parameter variation on the calculation result.