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利率市场化意味着中国货币政策的操作从以数量工具和目标为主转向以价格工具和目标为主。在利率市场化的过程中,中国与主要发达经济体之间的利差有可能扩大,这会如何影响跨境资本流动和人民币汇率呢?本文从利率平价理论出发,重点分析了利率市场化对跨境资本流动的影响。分析结果表明:在人民币有效实际汇率基本接近其均衡汇率的情况下,央行可以通过扩大汇率波动幅度和对汇率市场进行不可预测的间隙性干预来影响市场对未来汇率的预期;央行可以通过改变一直以来实行的资本“宽进严出”的政策,鼓励企业对外直接投资和风险分散型个人证券投资,引导资本账户资金流向和成本,让跨境资本真正地双向流动起来,以此来化解汇率升值压力,稳步推进利率市场化。总体来说,作为一个需要有独立货币政策的大国,中国资金的价格应该从目前“利率波幅大、汇率波幅小”转向“利率波幅小、汇率波幅大”。
The marketization of interest rates means that the operation of China’s monetary policy has shifted from mainly quantitative tools and targets to price-based tools and targets. In the process of marketization of interest rates, the spread between China and the major developed economies is likely to widen. How does this affect the flow of cross-border capital and the exchange rate of RMB? Based on the theory of interest rate parity, this paper focuses on the analysis of the interest rate marketization Impact of cross-border capital flows. The analysis results show that under the condition that the real effective exchange rate of Renminbi is close to its equilibrium exchange rate, the central bank can influence the expectation of the future exchange rate by expanding the volatility of the exchange rate and unpredictable intermittent intervention in the exchange rate market. Since the introduction of capital “lenient and strict ” policy to encourage enterprises to invest in foreign direct investment and risk-diversified individual securities, capital flows to guide capital flows and costs, so that cross-border capital really two-way flow together, in order to resolve Pressure on the appreciation of the exchange rate, and steadily push forward the marketization of interest rates. Generally speaking, as a large country that needs to have an independent monetary policy, the price of Chinese funds should shift from the current “high interest rate volatility, small exchange rate volatility” to “low interest rate volatility and high exchange rate volatility.”