论文部分内容阅读
为了对新概念分离模块航天器进行全面评估,本文提出了一种基于不确定性全寿命周期仿真的评估方法。首先,对分离模块航天器术语和体系结构进行了阐述,对评价准则进行了定义,确定以风险调节全寿命周期成本和净收益现值的期望值和方差作为评价指标。其次,对分离模块航天器概念设计阶段学科模型进行了介绍,以此为基础对全寿命周期成本模型和净收益现值模型进行了详细讨论。再次,对全寿命周期不确定性因素进行了分析,并采用概率论进行了数学建模。然后,对全寿命周期仿真过程时序进行了分析,采用面向对象建模的方法对仿真模型进行了建模;仿真模型集成了仿真对象的不确定性模型,能够随着全寿命周期仿真演进对仿真对象的不确定性状态进行动态演化,以此为基础构建了基于不确定性全寿命周期仿真评估平台。最后,基于该评估方法对虚拟对地遥感分离模块航天器方案进行讨论,结果表明在考虑不确定性因素影响下,模块分离方案和分批发射方案对成本与收益有很大影响,且分离模块航天器比其对应传统单颗航天器更有优势。
In order to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the new concept of separation module spacecraft, this paper presents an evaluation method based on the uncertainty of life-cycle simulation. Firstly, the definition of spacecraft terminology and architecture of the separation module is described. The evaluation criteria are defined, and the expected value and variance of the life-cycle cost of risk adjustment and the present value of net income are taken as the evaluation indexes. Secondly, the Discrete Module Spacecraft Conceptual Design Discipline Model is introduced. Based on this, the life cycle cost model and the present value of net income model are discussed in detail. Thirdly, the uncertainty factors of the whole life cycle are analyzed and the mathematical modeling is carried out by using probability theory. Then the timing of the whole life cycle simulation process is analyzed, and the simulation model is modeled by the object-oriented modeling method. The simulation model integrates the uncertainty model of the simulation object and can simulate the whole life cycle simulation evolution The dynamic state of the object’s uncertainty is evolved. Based on this, a simulation-based evaluation platform based on uncertainty life cycle is constructed. Finally, based on this evaluation method, the spacecraft solution of virtual remote sensing separation module is discussed. The results show that under the influence of uncertain factors, the module separation scheme and batch emission scheme have a great impact on cost and benefit, and the separation module Spacecraft more than its corresponding single-spacecraft advantage.