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本文确定了湖泊河蟹(Eriocheir sinensis H.Milne—EdWards)渔获量的预报方法。单因子预报法:以上年向湖泊放流蟹苗量为依据,结合湖泊的生产性能列出方程(3)。回归分析法:从影响河蟹资源和年产量的众多因素中,筛选出几个最密切的相关因子,列出多元回归方程,洪泽湖为方程(8),高宝湖为方程(9),湖泊水位突变和形成的“瓶颈效应”,对河蟹资源及年产量有不利影响。
In this paper, the method for forecasting the catch of Eriocheir sinensis H. Milne-EdWards was established. Single-factor forecasting method: Based on the amount of crabs released into lakes in the previous year, equation (3) is listed in combination with the lake’s performance. Regression Analysis: From the many factors that affect the resources and annual yield of crabs, several most relevant factors are screened, multiple regression equations are listed, Hongze Lake is Equation (8), Gaobao Lake is Equation (9), lake water level Mutation and the formation of a “bottleneck effect” on crab resources and annual output have a negative impact.