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从经济基本面、货币政策、投资者情绪、资本流动等视角进行分析,2014年美元指数长期上扬的牛市行情或难以确立,维持宽幅震荡的概率较高。回首2013年,美元走势引人注目,但并未如市场预期走出一路上涨的牛市,整体上呈震荡行情。根据路透数据,2013年美元指数的震荡中枢为81.84,仅略高于2012年的81.05。虽然7月9日美元指数最高触及84.75,超越2012年84.10的峰值,但触顶后美指暴跌,未形成有效突破。2013年,美元至少错过了两次确立牛市行情的机会:一是3
From the economic fundamentals, monetary policy, investor sentiment, capital flows and other perspectives analysis, the 2014 dollar index long-term bull market or it is difficult to establish a higher probability of maintaining wide shocks. Looking back on 2013, the trend of the United States dollar was noticeable, but not as bullish as the market expected to go up. As a whole, the market fluctuated. According to Reuters data, the dollar index shock center in 2013 was 81.84, only slightly higher than 81.05 in 2012. Although the highest index hit 84.75 on July 9, surpassing the peak of 84.10 in 2012, after the summit, the United States refers to a sharp plunge and did not form an effective breakthrough. In 2013, the dollar missed at least two chances of establishing a bull market: first, 3