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本文综合评述了邢台地震以来二十年中的地震预报进展。文章首先总结了我国强震活动的特点及其在预报上的应用,包括强震活动的轮回性和大震孕育过程中中小地震活动的异常变化图象等。文中还重点探讨了二十年来地震前兆的研究进展,较系统地分析了前兆异常在时间和空间分布上的特征和孕震过程中不同阶段的异常表现。在此基础上归纳了对强震预报的认识。 文章最后分析了当前地震预报工作中所存在的主要问题,讨论了今后预报研究的重点课题和主要任务。
This paper reviews the progress of earthquake prediction in the past 20 years since the Xingtai earthquake. Firstly, the article summarizes the characteristics of strong earthquakes in China and their application in forecasting, including the recurrent nature of strong earthquakes and the abnormal change of small and medium earthquakes in the process of large earthquakes. This paper also focuses on the research progress of earthquake precursors over the past 20 years and systematically analyzes the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of precursory anomalies and the anomalous manifestations at different stages during the seismogenic process. On this basis, the understanding of strong earthquake prediction is summarized. Finally, the paper analyzes the main problems existing in the current earthquake prediction work and discusses the key topics and main tasks of the forecasting research in the future.