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面对西方好莱坞影片文化的猛烈冲击,国产电影若想走出国门,提高国家文化软实力、稳固本土市场的票房绩效已成为首要目标。本文以2014—2016年上映的共298部国产电影作为样本,通过采用传统OLS回归以及门限分位数回归方法对票房影响因素进行实证分析,结果表明:主创阵容、IP、网络口碑、营销宣传以及技术效果能显著正向影响票房,其中主演的边际影响存在门限效应表现出倒U型变化,且在高分位点上作用大幅递减;技术效果同样呈现先增大后减小变化;网络口碑效价作用效果呈现N型,营销宣传的弹性和IP效应始终呈现随着分位点的上升而提高的态势。题材方面,喜剧、魔幻及动作片能对票房产生积极影响,惊悚片则产生显著负向影响。电影制作方应当合理利用明星效应,通过提高营销宣传能力以及IP的开发等来增加票房绩效。
In the face of the fierce impact of the Western Hollywood film culture, if the domestically-produced movies want to go abroad and improve the country’s cultural soft power and stabilize the box office performance in the local market, it has become the primary goal. Based on a total of 298 domestic movies released in 2014-2016, this paper analyzes the factors influencing the box office by using the traditional OLS regression and the threshold quantile regression method. The results show that: the main lineup, IP, online word of mouth, marketing and promotion The technical effect can significantly and positively affect the box office, in which the threshold effect of the starring influence of the protagonist shows an inverted U-shaped change, and the effect on the high score point decreases greatly; the technical effect also increases first and then decreases; the internet word of mouth effect N-type effect of the price effect, marketing flexibility and IP effect has always been presented with the rise of sub-sites to increase the situation. In terms of themes, comedy, magical and action movies can have a positive impact on the box office while thrillers have a significant negative impact. Movie producers should make rational use of the star effect and increase their box office performance by improving marketing and promotional capabilities and IP development.