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目的探索上海市黄浦区流感流行特点及疫情演变规律。方法采用描述性流行病学方法,分析黄浦区2004-2011年流感样病例(influenza-like illness,ILI)流行趋势;应用两种季节趋势模型预测2012年1~9月份的ILI病例就诊百分比,并进行比较。结果黄浦区ILI就诊百分比从2004年的2.06%(2 267/110 201)降至2011年的1.02%(1 433/139 833)(P<0.001),平均1.51%(14 083/929 883)。流感发病流行高峰期为夏季和冬季(Z=-2.44,P=0.015),2009年起为冬春季高发。15岁以下人群ILI就诊构成比和估算人群粗发病率均高于其他年龄组。基于移动平均法的季节趋势模型预测2012年1~9月ILI%的平均相对误差和绝对误差分别为0.61%和3.04,低于基于季节指数的季节趋势模型预测值(6.44%和3.01),且曲线更加平滑,可以设定预警值和行动值。结论黄浦区2004-2011年ILI就诊百分比整体呈下降趋势。基于移动平均法的季节趋势模型预测法能客观地反映流感活动的实际变化趋势,可应用于ILI疫情预警。
Objective To explore the epidemic characteristics and epidemic evolution of Huangpu District in Shanghai. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemiological trend of influenza-like illness (ILI) in Huangpu District from 2004 to 2011. Two seasonal trend models were used to predict the percentage of ILI cases from January to September in 2012 and Compare. Results The percentage of ILI visits in Huangpu District dropped from 2.06% (2 267/110 201) in 2004 to 1.02% (1 433/139 833) in 2011 (P <0.001) with an average of 1.51% (14 083/929 883). The peak incidence of influenza was summertime and winter (Z = -2.44, P = 0.015), with high incidence in winter and spring since 2009. The proportion of ILI patients under 15 years of age and estimated population cohort incidence were higher than other age groups. Seasonal Trend Model Based on Moving Average Method The average relative error and absolute error of ILI% from January to September in 2012 were 0.61% and 3.04, respectively, lower than those predicted by the seasonal index (6.44% and 3.01) Curve smoother, you can set the warning value and action value. Conclusion The overall percentage of ILI visits in Huangpu District decreased from 2004 to 2011. The seasonal trend model prediction method based on the moving average method can objectively reflect the actual trend of the influenza activity and can be applied to early warning of the ILI epidemic.