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“树流感”的学名是栎树猝死病,该病自1996年在美国加利福尼亚州首次暴发以来,已造成了欧洲及北美大量林木的死亡.引起“树流感”的病菌栎树猝死病菌(Phytophthora ramorum)具有传播速度快、传播方式多、寄主种类繁多、症状表现缓慢、隔离与防控非常困难等特点,因此急需提前预测该病在我国的潜在适生区从而及时采取措施预防该病的传入与扩散.本文选取影响病菌繁殖与传播的4个气象因子(累年月均最高温、累年月均最低温、累年月均降水量、累年月均相对湿度),基于AHP-模糊综合评价方法和气候相似性分析方法,预测“树流感”在我国的适生度,综合2种方法的适生度分布预测结果,并把该结果与“树流感”潜在寄主植物分布进行叠置分析,得到“树流感”在我国的潜在分布区.结果表明,2种方法综合比2种方法各自得到的潜在最适宜区域面积都有一定的减小;但不管哪种方法,得到“树流感”在中国的适生分布从西南往东北方向都是呈降低的趋势,在靠近沿海纬度较低的区域,适生度明显较高.最终得到“树流感”潜在最适宜区域包括福建、江西、湖南,以及浙江、安徽、湖北、贵州、广西、广东和台湾的部分区域.本文的研究将对提高政府和民众对外来有害生物危害的认识,保障我国森林资源和生态环境、维护经济利益,具有重要的理论意义和实际价值.
The scientific name for Tree Flu is the sudden death of the oak tree that has caused massive tree deaths in Europe and North America since its first outbreak in California in 1996. The sudden death of the oak tree that causes the “tree flu” Phytophthora ramorum has the characteristics of fast propagation, multi-way of transmission, variety of host, slow symptom, isolation and prevention and control. Therefore, it is urgent to predict the disease in our country’s potential suitable area so that we can take timely measures to prevent it Disease introduction and spread.This paper selects four meteorological factors (the highest monthly average temperature in the year, the lowest temperature in the year, the average annual precipitation in the year, the relative humidity in the year) AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and climatic similarity analysis method were used to predict the fitness of tree flu in China. The results of fitness degree distribution of the two methods were integrated, Potential host plant distributions were overlay analyzed to get the potential distribution of “tree flu” in China.The results showed that the two methods could all reduce the potentially most suitable area of the two methods, Regardless of The “tree flu” distribution in China shows a downward trend from southwest to northeast, and its fitness is obviously higher near the lower latitudes of the coastal area. "The potential most suitable regions include Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong and Taiwan .This study will improve the government and people’s awareness of the harm of exotic pests and safeguard our country Forest resources and ecological environment, safeguarding economic interests, has important theoretical significance and practical value.