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采用模糊数学和多元统计分析理论建立了煤与瓦斯突出预测敏感指标数学模型,定量研究了突出预测敏感指标的敏感度,并对各个指标敏感性进行排序。确定了钻屑瓦斯解吸指标Δh2与钻屑量指标S为主要预测指标,钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度指标q为辅助预测指标。利用此方法在某矿煤巷掘进工作面进行了应用。实践证明,选择的预测指标对突出危险性较敏感,保证了煤巷掘进的顺利进行。
The mathematical model of predicting sensitivity index of coal and gas outburst was established by using fuzzy mathematics and multivariate statistical analysis theory. The sensitivity of predicting sensitive index was quantitatively studied and the sensitivity of each index was ranked. The gas desorption index Δh2 and the drill cuttings volume index S are determined as the main prediction indexes, and the gas velocity index q of the borehole gas emission is the auxiliary prediction index. Using this method in a coal mine tunnel heading face has been applied. Practice has proved that the selected forecasting index is more sensitive to salient risks and ensures the smooth progress of coal tunneling.