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简单的统计或计量结论往往具有两大特点:一是它在很大程度上反映的是过去的变化趋势而无法揭示经济规律,难以揭示社会经济的实在结构及其运行机理;二是它揭示的主要是常规大势而很少有实践价值,难以为社会经济的未来发展、尤其是那些变异性发展提供预测。事实上,统计学关系不等于经济规律,计量分析往往难以上升到理论层次。经济理论的优劣评判所依据的也往往不是其预测力,而是其解释的逻辑性,同时,新理论的迅速传播往往在于其特定的社会环境。
Simple statistics or measurement conclusions often have two characteristics: First, it largely reflects the past trends and can not reveal the economic laws, it is difficult to reveal the real structure of the social economy and its operating mechanism; second, it reveals It is mainly conventional but seldom practical and difficult to predict the future development of socio-economy, especially those with variability. In fact, the statistical relationship is not equal to the economic law, econometric analysis is often difficult to rise to the theoretical level. The evaluation of pros and cons of economic theory is often not based on its predictive power but on the logic of its interpretation. At the same time, the rapid spread of new theories often lies in their specific social environment.