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本文对目前流行的投资决策方法(实期权定价,决策树分析与蒙特卡罗模拟法)从项目投资决策的角度进行了比较分析,指出了其各自的优缺点及适用范围,并对最具前景的期权定价法进行了重点阐述。分析结果显示,尽管各种方法存在某些差异,但事实上可以认为是同一投资决策方法框架下应用的不同形式,在应用实期权模拟项目复杂性时需要适当简化问题。未来的研究应当考虑矿产资源勘探开发项目中技术参数不确定性对项目价值与投资决策的影响。
In this paper, the current popular investment decision-making methods (real option pricing, decision tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation) from the perspective of project investment decision-making comparative analysis pointed out their respective advantages and disadvantages and the scope of application, and the most promising The option pricing method has been highlighted. The analysis shows that although there are some differences between the various methods, they can in fact be regarded as different forms applied under the framework of the same investment decision-making method, and problems need to be simplified appropriately when applying the real option simulation project complexity. Future research should consider the impact of the uncertainty of the technical parameters in the exploration and development of mineral resources on the project value and investment decision-making.