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基于山西省境内分布较为均匀的70个地面气象观测站1970—2012年逐日平均气温和地面最低温度资料,统计了≥0℃和≥10℃期间的活动积温、7月平均气温以及无霜冻期等农业热量指标.采用线性倾向估计法和累积距平法分析了农业热量资源的变化及其突变特征,以及农业热量资源变化对作物种植带和棉花、马铃薯可种植区的影响.结果表明:≥0℃和≥10℃期间的活动积温分别以64.8和57.9℃·d·(10 a)-1的速率增加(P<0.001),7月平均气温以0.3℃·(10 a)-1的速率显著升高,无霜冻期以5.9 d·(10 a)-1的速率显著延长.≥0℃和≥10℃期间活动积温的增加幅度西部大于东部,7月平均气温的升高幅度北、中部大于南部,无霜冻期的延长幅度中部大于南、北部.≥0℃和≥10℃期间的活动积温在1996年发生了增加突变,7月平均气温在1993年发生了升高突变,无霜冻期在1997年发生了延长突变.与突变前相比,≥0℃和≥10℃期间的活动积温分别增加了219.4和196.7℃·d,7月平均气温升高了0.8℃,无霜冻期延长了15 d;与此同时,温热作物带和温暖作物带的面积向北扩大,扩大面积最大的是温暖作物带,扩大175.7%,而温和作物带、温凉作物带、温寒作物带和高寒植物区的面积缩小,缩小面积最大的是温寒作物带,缩小87.9%.随着农业热量资源的丰富,喜温作物可种植面积扩大,其中棉花可种植面积扩大1.7×106hm2,扩大53.5%;喜凉作物可种植面积缩小,其中马铃薯可种植面积缩小8.9×106hm2,缩小30.5%.
Based on the daily mean temperature and the minimum ground temperature of 70 meteorological observatories over the years 1970 to 2012 in Shanxi Province, the accumulated accumulated temperature, average temperature in July, and frost-free period were calculated at ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ The index of agricultural calorific value was analyzed by linear tendency estimation method and cumulative distance method, and the effects of agricultural caloric resources on crop plantation zone, cotton and potatoes planting area were analyzed.The results showed that: ≥0 (P <0.001) at 64.8 and 57.9 ℃ · d · (10 a) -1, respectively. The average temperature in July was significantly increased at the rate of 0.3 ℃ · (10 a) -1 And the frost-free period was significantly prolonged at a rate of 5.9 d · (10 a) -1.The increase of active accumulated temperature in ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ was greater in the west than in the east, and the increase in July average temperature was northward and central was greater than In the south, the extension of frost-free period was larger than that in the south and north, and the accumulated temperature accumulated in ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ increased suddenly in 1996. The mean temperature in July was increased and increased in 1993, Prolonged mutations occurred in 1997. Mutations , The accumulated accumulated temperature increased by 219.4 and 196.7 ℃ · d at ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ respectively, the average temperature in July increased by 0.8 ℃ and the frost-free period was prolonged by 15 days. In the meantime, And the area of warm crop belts expanded northward. The largest expansion was the warm crop belts, which increased by 175.7%, while the area of mild crop belts, warm and cool crop belts, warm and cold crop belts and alpine plants narrowed, the largest reduction was With the abundance of agricultural caloric resources, the planting area of the pleasant-temperature crops can be expanded, in which the planting area of cotton can be expanded by 1.7 × 106hm2, expanding by 53.5%; the planting area of pleasant-cold crops can be narrowed, of which potato Planting area reduced 8.9 × 106hm2, reduced by 30.5%.