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基金是我国股市里最大的主力,基金的行为对股市产生的影响举足轻重,通过观察基金的仓位即可判断出市场的心态波动。前不久披露的2009年度基金业绩报告显示,截至2009年底,偏股型基金的仓位平均在90%以上,有些基金的仓位甚至达到95%以上,几乎是满仓操作。看多的投资者认为,基金仓位高说明主力机构对后市持乐观态度,股市应该看涨。中国有句古话:“月盈则亏,水满则溢。”事实上,自2005年以来的统计资料显示,当偏股型基金仓位在90%以上时,股价见顶的概率也处于90%以上。当股市在2007年10月出现拐点时,基金仓位平均在90%左右,基金集体判断失误。
Fund is the biggest force in the stock market in our country. The influence of the fund’s behavior on the stock market plays a decisive role. By observing the position of the fund, the market mentality can be judged. The 2009 fund performance report just released shortly revealed that as of the end of 2009, partial stock funds averaged over 90% of positions, and some fund positions even reached over 95%, almost full warehouse operations. See more investors believe that the high fund positions that the main institutions optimistic about the market outlook, the stock market should be bullish. There is an old saying in China: “Monthly surplus is deficit and water is full.” In fact, statistics from 2005 show that when the partial stock fund position is above 90%, the probability of the share price peaking is also at More than 90. When the stock market in the turning point in October 2007, the fund positions average about 90%, the Fund collective judgment error.