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一、1991—2010年经济发展的总体目标与基本特征 1.1 经济发展的总体目标 根据我们对未来17年我国经济发展趋势进行的预测,并结合定性分析,结论是:1991—2010年将是我国经济增长的黄金时期。据测算,90年代我国GDP可保持年均9％的增长率,2000年GDP可达41857亿元(人民币,按1990年不变价计算,下同),人均GDP可达3283元;2001—2010年,我国GDP增长率不会低于年均7.5％,按此计算,2010年GDP为86269亿元,如果2000年后年均人口自然增长率控制在7‰,人均GDP将达6311元。1990—2010年GDP年均增长率为8.25％。
I. General and Basic Characteristics of Economic Development from 1991 to 2010 1.1 General Objectives for Economic Development Based on our forecast of the economic development trend of our country in the next 17 years and qualitative analysis, it is concluded that from 1991 to 2010, China’s economy The golden age of growth. According to estimates, China’s GDP in the 1990s can maintain an average annual growth rate of 9%. In 2000, the GDP can reach 4,185.7 billion yuan (RMB, calculated at constant 1990 prices, the same below), with a per capita GDP of 3,283 yuan. In 2001-2010 According to this calculation, the GDP in 2010 will be 8,626.9 billion yuan. If the annual natural population growth rate after 2000 is controlled at 7 ‰, GDP per capita will reach 6,311 yuan. From 1990 to 2010, the average annual growth rate of GDP was 8.25%.