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对外贸易对中国的税收有怎样的影响?回答这一问题,对制定贸易政策有重要的现实意义。本文对1-2-3模型进行修正,将总产出区分为4种具有不同税收特征的产品,构建相应的税收模型,从理论上分析了对外贸易对税收有正面的影响。实际测算显示,一般贸易出口每增加1元人民币,会相应带动当年税收增加0.4-0.5元人民币。通过对季度数据的Granger因果检验和向量误差修正模型分析,本文发现出口增加对税收有持续的正面影响。
How does the impact of foreign trade on China’s tax revenue? Answering this question has important practical significance for the formulation of trade policy. This paper modifies the 1-2-3 model, divides the total output into four kinds of products with different tax characteristics, builds the corresponding tax model, and theoretically analyzes that foreign trade has a positive impact on tax revenue. The actual calculations show that for every 1 yuan increase in exports of general trade, the tax revenue will increase by 0.4-0.5 yuan. Through the Granger causality test and the vector error correction model analysis of the quarterly data, this paper finds that the increase of exports has a continuous positive impact on tax revenue.