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水资源调控是不同区域和用水户之间有效公平分配水资源的重要途径,本文以新疆玛纳斯河流域为研究对象,以水资源供需缺水量最小为优化目标,在分析耗散结构、协同学、有序原理和临界控制论的基础上,应用多维临界调控模型对玛纳斯河流域水资源系统进行行业间优化调控。研究结果表明:2020年,通过工业节水30.8%、农业节水1.2%和污水资源化1.38×108m3,可使系统熵由0.34降低到0.15;2030年,通过工业节水54%、农业节水1.6%和污水资源化1.89×108m3,可使系统熵由0.34降低到0.15;2030年的缺水量比2020年的缺水量减少了0.4×108m3,可实现水资源系统的有序发展。研究成果对解决灌区水资源供需矛盾、提高水资源高效利用具有重要意义。
Water resources regulation and control is an important way to distribute water resources effectively and equitably between different regions and water users. In this paper, the Manas River Basin in Xinjiang is the research object, with the minimum water supply and demand of water resources as the optimization objective. In the analysis of dissipative structure, Synergetics, orderly principle and critical control theory, the multi-dimensional critical control model is applied to optimize the regulation of water resources system in Manas River Basin. The results show that in 2020, the system entropy can be reduced from 0.34 to 0.15 by industrial water saving of 30.8%, agricultural water saving of 1.2% and wastewater reclamation of 1.38 × 108m3. By 2030, through industrial water saving 54%, agricultural water saving 1.6% and 1.89 × 108 m3 of wastewater resource, the entropy of the system can be reduced from 0.34 to 0.15. The water shortage in 2030 is 0.4 × 108 m3 less than that in 2020, which can lead to the orderly development of water resources system. The research results are of great significance in solving the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in irrigation districts and improving the efficient utilization of water resources.