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本文主要分析了太平洋海表面温度(SST)与东北、华北地区冬季气温以及渤海海冰之间的关系。发现前7—24个月赤道东太平洋SST与后三者之间有密切的遥相关关系,即SST异常偏高(低)——埃尔尼诺(反埃尔尼诺事件)时,在翌年冬季华北、东北地区将是异常偏暖(冷)年,渤海海冰将是轻冰(严重冰封)年。渤海海冰1950—1988年共有5次严重冰封年,有4次都是出现在反埃尔尼诺年后期,仅有1952/53年冬季的严重冰封年出现在埃尔尼诺年后期,可信度达80％。而埃尔尼诺年后期则绝大多数出现轻冰或正常冰封年,可信度达94.7％。用前期海温建立的回归方程,以预报冰级误差小于1为正确,则30年拟合值有26年准确,拟合准确率达87％。8年预报准确率也达87％。
This paper mainly analyzes the relationship between the surface sea temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean and winter temperatures in the northeast and north China and the sea ice in the Bohai Sea. It was found that there was a close teleconnection between the SST and the latter three in the equatorial Eastern Pacific over the first 7-24 months, ie, an abnormally high (low) SST anomaly (El Niño) during the following year Winter in northern and northeastern China will be unusually warm (cold) years, the Bohai Sea ice will be light ice (severe freeze) years. The sea ice in the Bohai Sea suffered a total of five severe ice seasons from 1950 to 1988, with four occurrences in the late Antinori Period. Only the severe ice seasons of the 1952/53 winter appeared in the late El Niño , The credibility of up to 80%. In the latter part of El Niño, however, most of the years were light ice or normal ice years, with a credible 94.7%. Using the regression equation established by the previous sea temperature to predict that the ice level error is less than 1 is correct, the 30-year fitting value is 26 years accurate and the fitting accuracy rate is 87%. 8-year forecast accuracy rate reached 87%.