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作为实施货币政策的直接作用对象,利率政策是央行货币政策执行中的关键一环。近年来,为了逐步推进利率市场化,央行频繁调息,利率波动较大。利率的变化会从诸多方面影响到银行的信贷业务,而银行的信贷结构健康与否又会给宏观经济环境造成重大影响。因此研究金融机构信贷结构对利率变动的敏感性有强烈的必要性以及现实性。我们通过对公司个人信贷、长期短期信贷、公司长期短期信贷、个人长期短期信贷四种信贷结构与利率及其他宏观指标的实证分析,研究信贷结构变化的趋势特点。结合理论研究相关成果,就中央银行货币政策如何更好的适应宏观经济的发展进行思考并提出相应建议。
As the direct role of monetary policy, interest rate policy is a key part of the central bank’s monetary policy implementation. In recent years, in order to gradually promote the marketization of interest rates, the central bank frequent interest rate adjustments, interest rates fluctuate. Changes in interest rates will affect the bank’s credit business in many ways, and the healthy credit structure of the banks will have a significant impact on the macroeconomic environment. Therefore, it is necessary and realistic to study the sensitivity of the credit structure of financial institutions to changes in interest rates. Through the empirical analysis of four credit structures, interest rates and other macroeconomic indicators of personal credit, long-term short-term credit, long-term short-term credit and personal long-term credit, we study the trend characteristics of credit structure changes. Combined with theoretical research related to the outcome of the central bank monetary policy how to better adapt to the macroeconomic development and make recommendations.