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本文根据经济理论假定变量间真实的因果关系,使用Granger因果检验对这种因果关系进行统计意义上的检验。结果发现,改革开放以来,投资、消费并不是云南省GDP增长的Granger原因,投资驱动、消费驱动的假说并没有得到验证,有理由怀疑GDP增速统计数据或固定资产投资增速数据的真实性。云南省GDP增长是投资增长、消费增长的Granger原因,表明云南省投资、消费增长最根本的原因是来源于GDP的增长。
In this paper, according to economic theory, we assume the true causation between variables and use Granger causality test to test the causal relationship statistically. The results show that since the reform and opening up, investment and consumption are not the Granger causes of Yunnan’s GDP growth. The investment-driven and consumer-driven hypothesis has not been validated and it is reasonable to suspect the authenticity of GDP growth statistics or fixed asset investment growth data . The GDP growth in Yunnan Province is the Granger cause of investment growth and consumption growth. It shows that the most fundamental reason for the growth of investment and consumption in Yunnan Province is the growth of GDP.