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回首2003年,俨然已成为历史,有人可能不禁后悔“假如我知道有SARS,假如我知道老天总下雨,假如我知道……”,但是历史不会留情。我们唯一所能做到的就是总结历史经验,重新整装待发。 2004年已悄然走来,它将给我们带来一个怎样的市场?在这里仅提出我们想到的一些可能影响未来价格的因素,意在抛砖引玉,欢迎大家和我们共同探讨。 一、资源缺口:2003年国内棉花供需缺口带动棉价较上年平均上涨了近70％,2004年缺口能否让市场再次出现“上窜”?预计影响时间:5月-9月。 二、棉花进口:国内棉花供需缺口引发了大量棉花进口。2003年
Looking back on 2003, it seems as if it has become history. Someone may regret it. “If I know SARS, if I know God always rains, if I know ...”, history will not be merciless. The only thing we can do is to sum up the historical experience and get it ready again. 2004 has come quietly, it will give us a what kind of market? Here only put forward some of the factors we may think of future prices may affect, is intended to start a discussion, we welcome everyone to discuss with us. First, the resource gap: In 2003 the gap between domestic cotton supply and demand led the average price of cotton rose by nearly 70% over the previous year, in 2004 the gap can allow the market to appear again, “channeling”? Estimated impact time: May-September. Second, cotton imports: domestic cotton supply and demand gap has led to a large number of cotton imports. Year 2003